Too sick to cook and probably to blog

I think this is the first time I have had to cancel a dinner because I was sick. After receiving a diagnosis of Bronchitis and high fever I asked the doctor what she thought of the idea of cooking and serving dinner to 18 students. After rolling her eyes she said no. Forget about whether I would harm myself - I was too contagious.

Well I could least get off a couple of blogs, based on past creativity.. But now I am blogged out. Tomorrow is another day. Hopefully the antibuitucs will be winning the battle with the bacteria that have been feasting on me, by then.

Lessons about conflict terrorism and development from Sri Lanka's Civil Wars

`In the future many of you will have the opportunity to give speeches to (in the words of the friend to invited me to give this one) an ‘group of notables’, The audience for this address, given last Friday night, was to the Board members and some friends, of the Social Science Foundation of the University of Denver. The themes were quite similar, but note how I had to adapt the material to a different audience and setting.

I am not only honored but also a bit daunted by this opportunity to speak in the presence of a friend who is not only a world class scholar and an outstanding Dean but the one of the most elegantly witty raconteurs I know. And to make tonight’s task even more daunting, my own equally outstanding Dean, Lou Goodman, well known for his high standards, is in the audience as well..

I just returned from spending a week in Hungary with the Balaton Group, a network of educators, policy analysts and public officials, concerned about sustainable development. It grew from Club of Rome’s global modeling work in the 1970s. Much of our discussion focused on what I call the extension function: how best to present and market lessons from policy oriented research to those who can benefit from them. Men and women like yourself, through your support of organizations such as the Social Science Foundation, play an essential intermediary role in this process. Programs such as your Social Science Foundation Scholarships emphasize what has become a mantra at my own institution, translating ideas into action and action into service.

The work I want to share with you, falls within this sphere. It culminates eighteen years of research and writing, which is captured in my new book. Paradise Poisoned: Learning about Conflict, Development and Terrorism from Sri Lanka’s Civil Wars. It is a big book – that’s what everyone says when they first view it – but its most important lessons can be conveyed in a few pages or so of text and, in a talk of 20 minutes or so.

· Two personal experiences lead me to an investigation of development-conflict linkages. First, I was employed as an engineering consultant, using my global modeling work, in Iran My group’s assignment was long range planning for the Shah’s cabinet ministers. Obviously we omitted important variables from our models. I wondered how our work might have contributed to the scenario that unfolded in Iran and what I might have done differently.

The second experience was at an international conference in Sri Lanka, shortly after my wife and I arrived for my first visit. The conference was international in name only because two weeks earlier, Colombo’s main bus station had been bombed, with heavy loss of life, and virtually all of the foreign invitees had stayed home. By this time, conflict and terrorism, catalyzed by devastating ethnic riots in the capital city had been a fact of life for more than four years. A question posed by one Sri Lankan seemed to capture the feelings of many: “How could we have come to this?” she said. “We never dreamed that it could come to this.”

Deadly civil conflicts and the terrorist tactics that accompany them may be the most tragic social pathology of the post cold war era. I say this because they impede so greatly the amelioration of other social pathologies: poverty, famine and chronic hunger, illiteracy, ecological degradation, AIDS and other epidemic diseases. These conflicts are pervasive, brutal, costly and, in many instances, intractable. When conflicts do abate, trajectories of post conflict reconstruction and peacebuilding are uncertain.

I believe that conflict prevention and peace building should be at the top of global and national political agendas.

`What made Sri Lanka, long described as a ‘paradise’ and a ‘development success story’ a case study from which I thought I could generalize about the causes of conflict, conflict prevention and peacebuilding.

First, Sri Lanka began life as an independent nation with what appeared to be extraordinarily good preconditions for a peaceful development scenario: a relatively robust economy, a relatively strong system of governance and relatively strong traditions of democratic pluralism. Thus it was possible to reject the most common explanations of conflict that emphasized the heritage of colonialism, rather than development policies implemented after independence.

Second, Sri Lanka’s leaders coped fairly successfully with the post independence social and economic problems that produced political instability and economic setbacks in many countries and brought authoritarian, one party regimes to power. They experimented with many of the economic development strategies whose merits and demerits were debated by international development practitioners. This provided an opportunity to compare divergent policies and assess which contributed most to circumstances that catalyzed intensifying conflict.

Finally, beginning in 1983, violent political conflict, including terrorist tactics, become the dominant reality in Sri Lanka’s political economic life. Between 1980 and 1990 the increase in conflict intensity was more than 10 – fold, with further increases, though less marked, in the next decade.

What are the most important lessons to be drawn from this work?

The most important is this. We know more than enough to choose policies that will help prevent protracted deadly conflict and terrorism. We also know more than enough to avoid policies that will cause protracted deadly conflict and terrorism. Our state of knowledge is analogous to our knowledge about the relationship between smoking and lung cancer. We know that smoking is a principal cause of lung cancer, though there are other causes. We know that refraining from smoking is the best way of avoiding lung cancer, though some abstainers may still contract the disease.

The proximate causes of escalating conflict and terrorism are well understood. These are organized activities. Militant groups are the organizers. Typically, they are committed to violent means as the only way of effecting radical changes. The foot-soldiers of militant groups are young men, and to a much lesser degree young women who have been radicalized. The root motivations of these youths are not that much different than those of the young men and women among whom I live in American University’s largest undergraduate dormitory. They want to feel good about their lives, about the circumstances in which they live and about the future prospects for themselves and their children. Youth are radicalized by disillusionment with the established order in their society and a climate of hopelessness about their future prospects and the future prospects of their children.

Development failures are a principal cause of hopelessness, disillusionment and radicalization. A good way of thinking about development failures, I believe is to begin with a definition of successful development. Shortcomings of the most widely used development measures, GNP per-capita, and the human development index are well known and discussed at length in my book. I believe an approach that emphasizes subjective well being is most promising because it goes to the heart of why people become radicalized and fight. My working definition of successful development is a scenario that is widely perceived by a country’s residents as constructively responding to their needs and aspirations. The measure of success is that residents, when queried, say they feel good about their lives, the circumstances in which they live and future prospects for themselves and their children.

Development failures are scenarios that fall short, often grievously, short, of this standard. They might be termed the second-order causes of escalating conflict and of protracted conflict. For the Sri Lankan case, I identified ten development failures which, if avoided or corrected, could have prevented escalating conflict and terrorism. Among them were

Unsustainable entitlement programs

Polarizing political rhetoric and tactics, especially tactics that sought political support by polarizing one ethnic group against another.

Winner take all official language policies which strove to exclude a large minority community from political power and economic opportunity

Failure to devolve power to localities and regions; an ‘outstation’ mentality in implementing development strategies and programs

Inadequate funding, politicization and ethnic homogenization of the security forces, and

Over ambitious and over politicized economic reform policies that promised far more than they delivered.

A deepened understanding of the causes of deadly conflict and terrorism and of development failures lead to ten 10 imperatives – or policy recommendations – for preventing deadly conflict and terrorism. Among the most important are these.

First, maintaining public order and preventing social turbulence from escalating into protracted deadly conflict are prerequisite to the success of all other development policies.

Second. Polarizing political rhetoric and tactics must be foregone, however tempting their short-term benefits may seem. Like mustard gas, which had to be abandoned as a weapon in World War I, this political strategy has a tendency to blow back upon the user.

Third. Meeting the needs and aspirations of fighting age young men should be the first priority of national development policies and of policies funded by international donors.

Fourth. Developing countries should have internal security forces (police and paramilitary) that are generously funded, professional, apolitical and trained to meet the complex challenges of maintaining public order in a changing society.

And finally, Multinational corporations, businesses and businessmens organizations should play a more active role in defining and supporting successful development policies.

Deepening an understanding of conflict escalation and developing recommendations for conflict prevention has obvious policy relevance for settings where one or more strong militant groups are not in place. But what about conflicts where preventing a strong militant group from forming is not longer an option?

This is, of course, the circumstance Sri Lanka and many other nations face. From time to time, I do provide advice to Sri Lankan political leaders, in confidence, on the current peace process and other matters. However two weeks ago I also participated in a public briefing, organized by the Sri Lanka Congressional caucus. My presentation concluded with four recommendations which, I suggested described a context within which a peacebuilding scenario must inevitably unfold, whether this be sooner or later. Taken more broadly, I believe these recommendations are relevant to many conflicts, not only Sri Lanka’s

First, there needs to be a candid acknowledgment, hopefully by all political parties and groups within Sri Lanka, that military subjection of the Tamil Tiger Militants is highly improbable. It is this reality, above all, that mandates continued political engagement and will mandate, ultimately, some sort of political solution. Arriving at this solution will, of necessity, involve negotiations with an organization that has been labeled ‘terrorist’ and continues to include some terrorist elements. The Tamil Tigers’ abandonment of terrorism will, at best, occur in parallel with the unfolding of some peacebuilding scenario. Many, on both sides, will view this scenario as falling far short of optimal.

Second, international community leaders at both multilateral and national levels should be realistic about their promises to Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka’s political leaders should be realistic about their expectations that ‘international pressure’ will be of much help in solving their problems. Friends of Sri Lanka and Sri Lankans themselves must recognize that in an international system shaped, increasingly, by the politics of ‘realism, Sri Lanka is a relatively small, economically marginal, geostrategically insignificant nation. When Sri Lanka’s protracted conflict is ultimately resolved – I pray this will come sooner rather than later – it will be Sri Lankans who have been the prime movers in crafting that resolution.

Third, conflict management and peacebuilding should be overriding national priorities, superceding all other national priorities for all of Sri Lanka’s mainstream political leaders. I have long believed – and said publicly – that there will be no peace with the Tamil Tigers until Sri Lanka’s leaders first make peace with themselves. Sri Lanka’s leaders should seriously consider a broadly constituted national government, with conflict management and peacebuilding as overriding national priorities. For many decades conflict in Sri Lanka has been characterized by what James Manor characterized as a poisonous cycle. The party in power, whichever party, proposes reasonable accommodations. The party out of power, whichever party attacks those accommodations to achieve short term political gains. This must change if there is to be peace.

Fourth, there will be no lasting peace in Sri Lanka until solving the problems of unemployment and lack of economic opportunity faced by Sri Lanka’s youth, especially young men, in both the north and the south are elevated as a national priority. In the concluding chapter of Paradise Poisoned I pointed to a reality that seems obvious to me, but has, for all practical purposes, been ignored by Sri Lanka’s political leaders, their contemporaries in other global south nations, and leaders of the international development community. Young men were the prime recruits of both the LTTE and the Sinhalese militant peoples liberation front and remain so to this day. That the segment of society with the greatest power to disrupt should be also be among the most disadvantaged seems paradoxical. The political consequences of failing to change this are perilous.

At the my book lunch in Colombo, the official culmination of this 18 year project, I shared an observation which seems appropriate for this evening, as well. Most authors, I said, want their work to be of lasting value, and of course most books wind up on the remainders shelf within a year or so? Should that grim fate be escaped, here is what I hope critics and commentators may be saying about Paradise Poisoned, five years from now.

First, Paradise Poisoned showed how contending explanations of conflict escalation could be represented in a single model, because they all describe parts of the same system,

Second, Paradise Poisoned emphasized the importance of targeting development strategies to meet the needs of youth, especially young men, who are the prime recruits and the foot soldiers of militant movements.

Third, Paradise Poisoned provided a basis for collegial, fruitful dialogue between those who view conflict prevention and resolution from the vantage point of development and those who view it primarily from the vantage point of security.

Fourth, Paradise Poisoned highlighted the role of police officers in development and conflict prevention, winning them the resources, respect, commitment to professionalism and freedom from political interference necessary to carry out their duties effectively.

Fifth, Paradise Poisoned convinced political leaders that the same rigorous cost benefit standards applied to development projects should be applied to the use of force and violence, and especially the decision to go to war.

The verdict on this work and, far more important, on whether the next decade is dominated by protracted conflict or peacebuilding will be very much in your hands and the hands of others like you. Because of who you are, where you are and what you have accomplished, you cannot escape this responsibility.

Congresional Briefing on a possible role of the interntional community in Sri Lanka

Just before leaving for Europe, I participated in a Congressional briefing on the international community role in Sri Lanka. The text is a bit long, but gives you another side of a Professor’s life and my own research, so I thought might be of interest. The other participants in the briefing, organized by the Sri Lanka Caucus were Ambassador Jayantha Dhanapapala, head of Sri Lanka’s Peace Secretariat and Ambassador Teresita Schaeffer, former use Ambassador to Sri Lanka and head of the Foreign Service Institute; now head of the South Asia program of the Center for International and Strategic studies (CSIS) The complete briefing is posted in the Embassy of Sri Lanka to the US Webside/

It is an honor to join in this panel with three such distinguished members of the diplomatic community. In particular, it is always a privilege to see Ambassador Dhanapala whom I came to know well during his tour in Washington and who, incidentally, is a graduate of American University. I was gratified to learn that he is the nominee of Sri Lanka’s government for the United Nations Secretary Generalship, supported by all major parties. The text of my remarks, somewhat edited, follows.

Nor long ago, Ambassador Dhanapala delivered the Mohammed Sahabadeen Memorial Address in Colombo. ‘Dr. Sahabadeen reminds us,’ he said ‘of the basic moral decency that continues to be the cohesive moral glue in our country and the heights of cultured living and selfless philanthropy that we as Sri Lankans, of all ethnic and religious groups are capable of..’ In addition to diplomatic experience, leadership skills, managerial abilities and a considerable intellect, Ambassador Dhanapala, too, exemplifies these qualities. It is my hope that they will be recognized and affirmed by those responsible for choosing a new United Nations leader at a most critical juncture and in particular, by the leaders of my own country.

Why does Sri Lanka deserve international community support?

Ambassador Dhanapala has called for an increased international community role in Sri Lanka following the tragic assassination of another outstanding Sri Lankan leader and friend, Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar. Before commenting on some of his specific proposals, however, it may be useful to remind Americans, including those in this room, why Sri Lanka is a nation that is eminently deserving of international and especially of U.S. support. I believe my more than eighteen years of visiting studying and writing about this beautiful island nation qualifies me to do so.

Sri Lanka is the oldest and most resilient democracy in the Global South, with an uninterrupted record of contested elections and peaceful transfers of power dating from 1935. It has provided leadership in advocating international disarmament regimes. Among development practitioners like myself, it is known for its exemplary record in achieving high levels of literacy, life expectancy and infant mortality. It has sustained these levels, for the most part, despite more than 20 years of protracted conflict. It is one of very few nations, long before the end of the Soviet empire, to voluntarily transition from a state controlled economy to a free market economy. Most remarkable, it is a nation where, despite years of protracted conflict between the government and an armed Tamil militant group, relatively high levels of comity between diverse ethnic communities – Sinhalese, Tamils and Muslims have been sustained. Tamils live in Colombo and many other parts of Sri Lanka. They serve in the government at high levels and, more rarely, even in the security forces. Foreign Minister Kadirgamar was a Tamil citizen of Sri Lanka, which, of course, was a prime motive for his assassination.

What can international community pressure accomplish and not accomplish?

I fully endorse Ambassador Dhanapala’s proposals for involvement by the international community. It is possible that international pressure can help revitalize the peace process, reduce external flows of funds to the LTTE, and help minimize military violations of the Cease Fire Agreement. Aggressive monitoring of the Sri Lanka peace process by the Co-Chairs of the Tokyo donor conference may also be a point of leverage. I am less optimistic about leveraging international pressure to effect change within LTTE controlled areas, for example reducing human rights violations, repression of opposition groups and recruitment of child soldiers. However that does not mean that reiteration of principles and agreements that militate against such behaviors should not only be continued, but become more forceful. Reinforcing regimes founded on such principles benefits the entire international community, not only Sri Lanka.

Sri Lanka’s protracted conflict will only be resolved by Sri Lankans.

Sri Lanka’s government is to be commended, in my opinion, for not acceding to the demands of more extremist groups who have called for the replacement of Norway as a facilitator. In meetings with the facilitators on several occasions, I have been impressed with their depth of knowledge, experience and commitment to evenhandedness. That factions, probably on both sides, question this commitment is not unusual in such facilitations. In the end, however, it is representatives of Sri Lanka’s government and of the LTTE that will have to resolve their differences. Neither the Norwegians, nor any other group of facilitators can do this for them.

What is needed? – four generalizations that take a longer term view

As participant in a panel that includes Ambassadors Dhanapala and Schaefer, it would be presumptuous for me to offer opinions on nuanced diplomatic initiatives, on the part of the US and other international actors that might move the peace process forward. Probably more useful will be for me offer four generalizations on Sri Lanka’s protracted conflict and the peace process that take a longer term view. These are derived, for the most part, from eighteen years of research and writing that recently culminated in my new book. Paradise Poisoned: Learning about Conflict and Development from Sri Lanka’s Civil Wars. Generalizations such as these describe the context within which a peacebuilding scenario must inevitably unfold, whether this be sooner or later.

1. There will be no military solution.

First, there needs to be a candid acknowledgment, hopefully by all political parties and groups within Sri Lanka, that military subjection of the LTTE is highly improbable. Experiences of the IPKF, plus Sri Lankan governments that tried this option – the names Jayewardene, Athulathmudali, Premadasa, Wijeratne, Wickremanayake and Ratwatte come to mind – must not be repeated to provide further evidence. It is this reality, above all, that mandates continued political engagement and will mandate, ultimately, some sort of political solution. Arriving at this solution will, of necessity, involve negotiations with an organization that has been labeled ‘terrorist’ and continues to include some terrorist elements. The LTTE’s abandonment of terrorism will, at best, occur in parallel with the unfolding of some peacebuilding scenario. Many, on both sides, will view this scenario as falling far short of optimal.

2. There must be realistic expectations about the international community’s role.

Second, international community leaders at both multilateral and national levels should be realistic about their promises to Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka’s political leaders should be realistic about their expectations that ‘international pressure’ will be of much help in solving their problems. Many of us in this room, including myself, love Sri Lanka and it looms large in our thoughts and feelings. But friends of Sri Lanka and Sri Lankans themselves must recognize that in an international system shaped, increasingly, by the politics of ‘realism, Sri Lanka is a relatively small, economically marginal, geostrategically insignificant nation. Sri Lanka’s current leaders would do well to heed the experience of J. R. Jayewardene and not rely overmuch on Western – especially American – intervention to solve their problems. When Sri Lanka’s protracted conflict is ultimately resolved – I pray this will come sooner rather than later – it will be Sri Lankans who have been the prime movers in crafting that resolution.

3. Peacebuilding must be the overriding national priority.

Third, conflict management and peacebuilding should be overriding national priorities, superceding all other national priorities for all of Sri Lanka’s mainstream political leaders. I have long believed – and said publicly – that there will be no peace with the LTTE until Sri Lanka’s leaders first make peace with themselves. I am not alone in holding this view, either within or outside Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka’s leaders should seriously consider a broadly constituted national government, with conflict management and peacebuilding as overriding national priorities. Since the days of the Bandaranaike Chelvanayakam pact, conflict in Sri Lanka has been characterized by what James Manor characterized as a poisonous cycle. The party in power, whichever party, proposes reasonable accommodations. The party out of power, whichever party attacks those accommodations to achieve short term political gains. This must change if there is to be peace. UNP support of the P-TOMS agreement is a step in the right direction but only a baby step. There must be giant steps and the sooner, the better.

4. Problems faced by Sri Lanka’s youth cannot be ignored.

Fourth, there will be no lasting peace in Sri Lanka until solving the problems of unemployment and lack of economic opportunity faced by Sri Lanka’s youth, especially young men, in both the north and the south are elevated as a national priority. In the concluding chapter of Paradise Poisoned I pointed to a reality that seems obvious to me, but has, for all practical purposes, been ignored by Sri Lanka’s political leaders, their contemporaries in other global south nations, and leaders of the international development community. The circumstances faced by Sri Lanka’s young men were powerfully described in perhaps the best report of its kind ever written, the Report of the Presidential Commission on Youth. It described their needs, aspirations and the bleak future they saw for themselves in eloquent detail. Young men were the prime recruits of both the LTTE and the JVP and remain so to this day. I concluded: That the segment of society with the greatest power to disrupt should be also be among the most disadvantaged seems paradoxical. The political consequences of failing to change this are perilous.

Interlinked priorities: development, security and human rights.

Let me conclude by returning to Ambassador Dhanapala’s Sahabadeen address with a quotation he offered from the March 21 report of the Secretary General, entitled In Larger Freedom. We will not enjoy development without security,’ the report emphasized, ‘and we will not enjoy security without development, we will not enjoy either without respect for human rights. Unless all these causes are advanced, none will succeed.’

Ambassador Dhanapala is an able, gifted, experienced political leader and there are others like him, mature and younger, among the leadership of all Sri Lanka’s major parties, the business community and a vibrant civil society. The skills necessary for peacebuilding exist in Sri Lanka if they can be mobilized and focused on national priorities that matter most. The first of these, as I have said, must be peacebuilding.

There is important work to be done by Sri Lanka’s political leaders and by leaders of the international community who care about one of the Global South’s most resilient democracies and, still, one of its success stories. It is time to get on with it.

Junko Edihiro, A One Person Sustainability Extension System

I have long been interested in processes that begin with scientific discovery, move from scientific discovery to practical applications, package those applications so that they are accessible to non-specialists who can use them, ‘market’ them so that the non specialists are aware of their potential usefulness, distribute the packaged applications to the potential users and, finally, coach users in effective implementation. Two organizations with which I and other some other Balaton members worked, the Club of Rome and The Hunger Project, had agendas that emphasized such processes. Dana Meadow’s Global Citizen columns, were motivated by a similar agenda.

Note the complexity of the chain and how many steps are involved. Scientists and academics who seek to make their work ‘relevant’ to ‘policy makers,’ to ‘concerned citizens’ and to ‘the general public’ are often disappointed. They underestimate the complexity of the outreach process. They believe their work is mostly done when they have made a discovery. They may bemoan their failure to put ideas into action and even blame intended recipients of their wisdom for failing to recognize value in the pearls that have been cast before them. Balaton group members are less prone to this pathology than most, but not immune.

Agricultural extension may represent the best institutionalized example of an effective-discovery >> application >> packaging >> outreach >> dissemination >> coaching process. (Sustainability advocates may differ with some messages of agricultural extension, but that is not my point). Interestingly Japan has one of the world’s most effective agricultural extension systems.

This morning, Balaton Group members were awed and inspired by a report from one of their relatively new members, Junko Edahiro. She has taken ideas from group members, combined them with her own and created a wide reaching outreach for sustainability and systems thinking in Japan. When she attended her first meeting, in 2002, this modest, apparently low key woman already had strong credentials. She had trained herself to become a simultaneous English-Japanese translator in two years. She had created a new system for translation that speeded up the process, five-fold. She had created a widely read environmental newsletter and an effective organization, Japan for Sustainability.

In the ensuing three years, as her report made clear, Junko has come to embody the vision of an effective network member that Dennis Meadows described at the first Balaton Group meeting and has reiterated at every subsequent one. For her, concepts of systems thinking were transformative and empowering. They provided a framework for expressing ideas that were already deeply rooted in her own thinking and in Japanese culture. It was not long before she was putting them to use and making them widely accessible in Japan. She translated Limits to Growth: The 30 Year Update into Japanese and then wrote a simpler, more accessible version, in Japanese, to broaden its outreach. These were two of more than 25 books she had written or translated. She invited Balaton members to speak in Japan on systems thinking. She organized training workshops with facilitators from outside Japan to lead them. Soon, the same workshops were being conducted in Japan by Japanese trainers. She has founded four organizations, one not-for-profit NGO and three for profit companies.

This is just a sampling of her recent accomplishments. She has, through her initiative, and focused energy, including her ability to draw effectively on Balaton group resources, created a sustainability extension system in Japan. I have little doubt that, soon, it will be global. She has become an active member of the Balaton Group Steering Committee and we are fortunate that she has agreed to play that role.

The words I chose to describe reactions to this morning’s presentation, ‘awed’ and ‘inspired’ were not exaggerations. And the Balaton group is heavily populated with world class overachievers. Follow-up questions mostly emphasized a single theme: ‘to what do you attribute your successes.’ Here are some of Junko’s responses I noted. They will be posted on my kitchen wall, for periodic reading.

1. I am always for something, never against.

2. To effect change, one needs visioning and systems thinking, but also marketing, communication and networking. Communication, in particular, must be a priority.

3. Anyone who thinks there can be change can do something about it.

4. You can’t do everything yourself. Give others the opportunity share your vision, carry forward your ideas and take credit for your successes.

5. If you do all your work with one hand, you will always have a hand free to grasp new opportunities.

6. I wanted to be part of my own organization, not to work for others. However in each organization, I have a strong co-founder.

I will be putting some of these ideas into practice. I look forward to learning of Junko’s accomplishments in the coming year and learning from them. Hereafter, I will number her among my role-models.

Revitalizing the Balaton Group – ‘new members night’

I could write about another very full day: three high level modeling presentations focusing on, respectively, global futures, the impact of climate change in Russia, a two-century political economic analysis with particular emphasis on India, workshops on sustainable-development education for business executives and the development of an environmental education network among Baltic Region universities. There was also one of two workshops I am giving – this on my book, Paradise Poisoned. I could write about one of those special personal-professional/ personal ‘reconnecting’ conversations with a colleague of nearly 40 years whom I introduced to global computer simulation modeling. Now he has become a world leader (perhaps one of the top two or three) in this field from which I stood aside to study conflict-development linkages in Sri Lanka, nearly two decades ago. I could celebrate his accomplishments while knowing I made the right choice for myself.

But I will, instead, write briefly about “new members’ night.” Since the group’s founding leader recognized the need for revitalization – those of us who are founding members are getting on – a number of new, and relatively young new members have been invited each year. One could never guess their youthfulness from the resumes, which were part of – often humorous – presentations on our traditional ‘new members’ night’ to which virtually older members listened avidly. Nations represented included Netherlands, Japan, China (2 new members), India, Zambia, Ghana, and Sweden. There were presentations by an environmental economist, a world-class climatologist, the founder of an environmental network of universities (mentioned above) a political leader cum business consultant cum NGO founder, a successful multimedia consultant who has just resigned from a lucrative practice to build a traditional, ecologically friendly mud-house to live in with his family and embark on a new career, a Chinese television anchor whose audience has probably been larger – perhaps much larger – than Peter Jennings, Tom Brokaw or Dan Rather.

Describing all of these presentations, received by a most appreciative multicultural audience, would take more space than I wish to take. I will only touch upon highlights. One presenter used systems concepts to present a hilarious professional life-history, framed as stocks, flows, delays, oscillations and sinks. Another, described the problem of framing his ‘identity’ in a South Asian context - was he Muslim, Hindu, Gujarati, Bengali, South Indian, and what lineage, and what caste? I was reminded that when I first met him and learned he was South Asian, I, too, felt the need to ‘place’ him, especially when his name was not, at first, easily identifiable. I do the same thing with Sri Lankans: are they Sinhalese? Tamil? Burgher? Moor? Malay? , Christian, Buddhist, Hindu, UNP supporter, SLFP supporter, from what ‘College’ (High School) did they graduate? All of these things are important to know, in order to relate to a new acquaintance appropriately. A third spoke of her education in African, British and American Universities and her political aspirations. There would be an opportunity to contribute to her political campaigns, before long, she told us. Another exhibited her new proficiency in causal loop diagramming by elaborating on a hoped-for political evolution in Asian-Western relations. She look less that 30 years old, but it turned out she had already risen to near the top of her profession in the largest and one of the most competitive nations in the world, China.

From the blogs I have written, these past several days, one might conclude that I had something to do with the Balaton Group’s vitality, resilience and promising future. This would be wrong. Though I was ‘present at the creation, my presence at meetings has been limited and my contributions, even more so. I have taken more – far more – than I have given and am working to redress the balance, though that is impossible. The opportunity to participate has been a most unexpected, undeserved, ‘gift of grace,’ for which I am most grateful. And it is gratifying to know that the group will, in all probability, continue, to affirm, revitalize and even inspire its members long after I have passed from the scene.

A full day at the Balaton Group meetings

So many interesting presentations to listen to. So many gifted, creative, committed people to speak with; learn from; be inspired by. The meeting’s theme is ‘Models and Methods for Securing Regional stability in a Globalizing world.’ Today’s session began with a discussion of global material flows by a senior policy analyst from the National Institute for Environmental Studies in Japan. This was followed by ‘Climate change in China,’ given by a Chinese scholar and the ‘Millennium Ecosystem Assessment’ given by a Canadian scholar who participated in one or more of the assessment teams.

In the afternoon, there was a workshop on designing sustainable development educational materials for the 14-18 age group. This lead to a discussion of a highly successful program organized by the Regional Center for Central and Eastern Europe, which morphed into a discussion of outreach programs for faith based communities and a workshop design for sustainable development education of non professionals in the US. There were screenings of anti-smoking and anti-alcoholism commercials used in Thailand, an environmental sensitivity program developed for employees of Total Oil in the Netherlands and a dance program designed to raise environmental consciousness in Vermont.

At lunch I caught up with a global modeler, new to the meetings, with whom I had worked in the US and Europe more than thirty years ago. In the evening, my dinner companion and I discussed the role that transformational technologies - Est., Landmark, DMA and others - had played in reshaping colleagues lives and how better technologies could be crafted to empower leaders who would be simultaneously humane, empathetic, empowering and effective in leading a transformation to sustainability. The discussion included candid sharing of our own transformational experiences and those of friends we had in common.

Mutual respect, mutual caring, a legacy of shared experiences and a foundation of similar, though not identical values provide a context for Balaton group discussions. They exemplify the way members of a policy oriented scientific community can and should share information with one another and relate to one another. This, combined with the vision and skill of the group’s founders in reinforcing this cultural context, help to explain the group’s resiliency.

The Balaton Group - A reslient afirming network that supports its members

Whatever their form, [networks] are made up of people who share a common interest in some aspect of life, who stay in touch and pass around data and tools and ideas and encouragement, who like and respect and support each other. One of the most important purposes of a network is simply to remind its members that they are not alone.

A network is non-hierarchical. It is a web of connections among equals held together not by force, obligation, material incentive or social contract, but by shared values and the understanding that some tasks can be accomplished together that could never be accomplished separately.

Limits to Growth: The 30 Year Update, (2004), p. 275

For the next several days, I will be writing about the annual meetings of The Balaton Group, which is the familiar name for the International Network of Resource Information Centers (INRIC). Though 20 so individuals, including myself, could claim the title of ‘founding members’ – we attended the first meeting – the group was primarily the creation of two Limits to Growth authors, Dennis and Donella Meadows. Networking is one of four keys to a sustainable development transition that they identify (the others are visioning, truth-telling, learning and loving).

This is the group’s 23^rd meeting. Today, Dennis Meadows (Donella died prematurely in 2002) gave the traditional introduction to the group’s history, values and culture for new members. What he said might puzzle organizational traditionalists and professional ‘human resources’ practitioners, whose institutional-cultural culture is quite different. The Balaton group has no defined purpose, Meadows emphasized, other than to support its members by helping them to succeed. It has almost no formal organization and needs relatively few resources. It is norm that group members do not list ‘The Balaton Group’ on their resumes. This year’s attendees were from 22 countries. Only 4 were Americans, all of whom work internationally. Among the group are international consultants, heads of centers and institutes, government ministers and department heads, media specialists, cartoonists, a small number of professors – all of whom work extensively outside universities – foundation officers and NGO heads. As Dennis Meadows emphasized, members derive their ‘stature’ not by the groups to whom they belong by but what they have accomplished. They have written major books, raised hundreds of thousands of dollars, shaped government policies, recontextualized global and regional issues. Their work has impacted the lives of millions of individuals all over the world. The network has contributed in demonstrable ways to many of these accomplishments. Members sustain the network because they like one another support one another and are ‘decent, honest, smart people.’ They share a more or less common set of values about how institutions should function, how human beings should relate to one another and how the human race might evolve towards a symbiotic relationship with the Planet Earth that sustains it. Some call this ‘sustainable development.’

For many members, including me, Balaton meetings provide a humane, reaffirming and reinvigorating oasis. The compel us to reexamine our priorities and clarify what really matters to us. They enable us to return to day-to-day responsibilities with renewed confidence that what we are doing has value, is worth fighting for - even passionately – and can make a difference. Everyone needs that sort of periodic reexamination and reaffirmation, from time to time, to sustain them. Networks, like the Balaton Group, can provide it.

A new technology ambience in rural Hungary

Last year, my technological breakthrough was obtaining a permanent mobile phone number in Sri Lanka. But making contact in Europe was still difficult. What a difference a year has made. Less surprising, perhaps, was wireless access in new and modern Munich airport. Plugging in was a snap and two hours of access was a reasonable 12 Euros – more than I needed when my flight was delayed, due to runway construction in Budapest. But even more wondrous was Hungary. The guest house where I am meeting is a modest Communist era lodging, now refurbished, but still with many Communist era accouterments and no elevators. When I was told there was ‘wireless access’ I was skeptical. I remembered similar promises in many hotels in many countries. But not only is there access, it is included as a service – in the dining room and outdoors only, not in our rooms. But a robust 11 Mps with a strong signal. In fact web access is more modern than access to electricity; plugs are a bit difficult to find.

Of course this changes the ambience of such meetings for many of us. There can be no excuse for not keeping up with responsibilities at home. Since meetings fill the day, this group of world class overachievers can – and no doubt will – fill the evenings with work. No longer can there be excuses for not keeping up. Even my Blackberry is functioning, with a strong signal, to interrupt day time activities. Instead of taking a walk – or even a nap – I can respond to emails on my Blackberry or even fire up my wifi.

By next year, I expect there will be wifi in Sri Lanka.

Obviously all of this is a mixed blessing, giving me greater opportunity to manage my time. Or let my work manage me.

Responding to a natural disaster by acknowledging systemic sin and building community

09 08 Responding to a natural disaster by acknowledging systemic sin and building community

Regular dormgrandpop readers will know that I occasionally write about Leeds Parish, where I attend Christian services on Sunday mornings when I am in Hume. In fact, I posted something earlier this week. This small community was founded in 1769 and, thus, has sustained itself for nearly 250 years. In last Sunday’s sermon, minister Linnea Summers Turner presented the most compelling statement about the Katrina disaster, among many I have heard. I asked her for the text of her sermon, which she was gracious enough to provide. One need not be a Christian to be awakened, inspired, and moved to action by her words.

“Do not be overcome by evil, but overcome evil with good.” Romans 12:21.

This week we have faced natural and human disasters of epic proportions: Torrential wind and rain, floods, massive destruction, violence, looting, people desperate for food and water, homeless refugees wandering the streets

“How can this be happening?” I, and perhaps you, thought. Things like this happen in 3^rd world countries, not U.S.. But reality is they do – are – happening here.

Now none of us is sure what the future may hold – for New Orleans, for people caught us in the devastation, for us and everyone facing the economic fallout from Katrina. And not knowing is frightening too.

How do we think about this as Christians? Where do we find God’s presence and message for us?

The short answer is, of course, that God is with those desperate people in New Orleans and along the Gulf coast, with the rescue workers tying to help, with those praying and working from afar, with all of us in our pain and confusion – now and always.

What has and is happening – not some kind of divine punishment or attack – rather a terrible and gigantic tragedy brought by forces of nature beyond human control or even understanding compounded with human greed, heedlessness about natural risks, stupidity, and, yes, individual human sin.

But beyond the central reality that God is always with us I believe that within these events and their aftermath is a clear wake up call for all of us – a call to change how we live, how we understand what is good and important in our lives and that of society.

In our smugness, collective and individual, we have been like a dreaming city, sure that we are (and will be) always both entitled and protected by our technology, power, wealth; we have assumed, implicitly or explicitly that we have control – mastery in all areas of our world. The truth is we can’t control everything, from nature to other people to aspects of our selves. We can’t fix everything or almost everything quickly and easily and we can’t have everything we want just because we want it.

We need to examine and acknowledge the pervasiveness of sin in our lives: both systemic and individual. Systemic sin is that wrongdoing and/or evil that over time has crept into, or more usually been built into the structures of society. Classisim and racism are usually cited as typical examples of systemic sin, but there are plenty more: greed that seeks profit and power at any price even if it means destroying necessary natural resources or building unsafely; political power that is interested in maintaining itself and thus ignores difficult tasks, the refusal to acknowledge needs of others and society in general if those needs conflict with individual or political aggrandizement.

We have all heard the echoes of systemic sin: “I want my house -- or my factory or my giant hotel built HERE! Who cares if it will damage the environment or put people or places at risk?” “Why spend money and time on the levees when they can produce flashier results elsewhere?” “Don’t worry about those people; they’re not that important.” We need to acknowledge and confront systemic sin in our culture and our country.

But we need to acknowledge and confront individual sin too: the attitude (and corresponding actions) that sees violence, arson, looting as acceptable behaviors. But we also need to acknowledge that such behaviors spring from deeper roots of sin: the pervasive if unstated beliefs that I can do what I want if can get away with, that desperate situations permit desperate actions, that hatred is an acceptable response to fear or desperation. .

Finally, perhaps most importantly, we need to proclaim the importance of community and connection. The last few days have shown how thin are the bounds of community and how easily they can be broken by disaster. This is not surprising because our world and our culture put a low value on community and the hard work that it takes to build and sustain the deep bonds of authentic community. But our Christian faith presents a different reality.

All three of our lessons today are about aspects of community – of building and maintaining community. None of them takes place in an easy or simple time; rather all are written for and about people facing struggle, conflict and even disaster. The prophet Ezekiel, writing just after the city of Jerusalem had been destroyed and most of its inhabitants dragged off into exile in Babylon, highlights the essential connection between leaders and their people – and the responsibility leaders have to proclaim the necessity for change, and the real possibility of change.

The apostle Paul, writing to the Christian community in Rome which was facing both internal disagreements about doctrine and practice as well as looming persecution from the Roman authorities, described the attitudes and associated behavior that foster genuine connection. WE could all read today’s epistle as a primer on how to live in community: love from the heart, live in hope, be patient, look to each other, seek reconciliation, not revenge.

Our gospel lesson is about seeking reconciliation, about rebuilding community. The early Christian community in which Matthew’s gospel was written was struggling with the basic issue of Judaism v. Christianity – whether one had to be Jew first, and so adhere to all Jewish practices. There was the whole issue of gentiles wanting to become part of this rather defined community – and bringing with them new ideas, new ways of doing things. Certainly Matthew’s community experienced plenty of conflicts and ruptures in the community life. The process Jesus lays out in verses 15 through 20 affirms importance of community, respects the individual – and emphasizes the importance of continuing the work of reconciliation always. Start with a one on one meeting; then move to a meeting with several close friends; finally, if those fail, lay the matter before the entire community. Tend to read the end, if the third step fails, “let that one be to you as a Gentile and tax collector” as form of excommunication. If all usual avenues fail, throw the bum out. But what if Jesus simply meant that if all avenues fail, start again at the beginning. This passage is after all, sandwiched between the parable of Lost Sheep where the shepherd refuses to let even one be lost and Jesus’ command to Peter to forgive “70 times 7.” I like the translation of verse 17 by Eugene Peterson: “If he won’t listen to the church, you have to start all over again from scratch; confront him with the need for repentance and offer AGAIN God’s forgiving love.”

The older I get, the more I believe that community and connection are essential to authentic living. It is the privilege and responsibility of Christians to model authentic community to the world, to be agents of reconciliation, to rebuild community. We don’t need to take on world. We can begin by building -- by BEING authentic community in our families, in our parish family, and in our local area.

On Friday I received an email from my husband’s first cousin. For years she has intentionally kept herself apart from the rest of her relatives, and there has been estrangement. In the last hear or so she and been in touch and we are all now slowly beginning to rebuild the ties of family – slowly and sometimes painfully. She asked what I thought about Katrina and I wrote back much of what I’ve tried to say here. I concluded my email: Give thanks for what you have. She e mailed back: “I am thankful that I have been able to reconnect with my relatives and my not blood related Perhaps together we can create something positive in the world.”

Perhaps together we – all of us here – can creative something positive in the world.

Let us not be overcome by evil, but as Christians, as members of the great community of faith across time and space, let us overcome evil with good. Amen.

Hate what is evil; hold fast to what is good.

Dormgrandpop readers will be familiar with Leeds Episcopal Church, where I attend 10:30 AM services on my weekend visits to Hume. One of yesterday’s Christian Bible readings, from the Apostle Paul’s ‘Letters to the Romans’ (Chapter 12, Verses 9-21) communicated this simple message.

‘Let love be genuine. Hate what is evil.. Hold fast to what is good. Love one another with mutual affection; outdo one another in showing honor. Do not lag in zeal. Be ardent in spirit. Serve the Lord. Rejoice in hope; be patient in suffering, persevere in prayer. Contribute to the needs of the saints; extend hospitality to strangers. Bless those who persecute you; bless and do not curse them. Rejoice with those who rejoice, weep with those who weep. Live in harmony with one another; do not be haughty, but associate with the lowly; do not claim to be wiser than you are. Do not repay anyone evil for evil, but take thought for what is noble in the sight of all. If it is possible, so far as it depends on you, live peaceably with all. Beloved, never avenge yourselves, but leave room for the wrath of God; for it is written, ‘Vengeance is mine, I will repay, says the Lord.’ No, ‘if your enemies are hungry, feed them; of they are thirsty; give them something to drink; for by doing this you will heap burning coals on their heads.’ Do not be overcome by evil, but overcome evil with good.

Paul’s message, which echoes themes in another Christian testimony, the 'Sermon on the Mount' and in many other of the world’s influential religious traditions, was something of value that I could take home from Sunday’s service.

It made talking the time to gather with the Leeds faith community worthwhile.

Dying withyour boots on

The death of Chief Justice William Rehnquist is now competing with news of hurricane Katrina on morning news shows. He died with his boots on – still serving vigorously, still overseeing the court and writing opinions, while fighting the encroachments of thyroid cancer.

The Chief Justice was passionate about his work and according to all reports, found it deeply fulfilling. There can be no better way to live one’s life, it seems to me. Rehnquist also had the privilege of a lifetime appointment, he could choose to retire or not. His choice was unequivocal.

There are many reasons to retire, but surely one of the saddest is “so I can do what I really want to do.” This implies that much or all of the retiree's working life has been spent ‘doing what I did not want to do.’ How often do young men and women embark on a profession or career, only to discover that it evokes no passion in them; that it provides little fulfillment for them? But by that time, the other parts of their life may be well under way. They have accumulated a spouse, children, a mortgage, a savings plan for college tuition, possibly nursing home expenses for aging parents. Their income has become a necessity. It has become, quite literally “compensation” – “compensation” for something they would not do otherwise.

How sad life must be one must contemplate the working day, five days of each weak, as a bleak vista of mostly unwelcome tasks that one is performing for ‘compensation.’ A recent study reported that more that fifty per-cent of Americans describe their lives in this way.

Young men and women on the threshold of careers and other life choices, among them my Anderson Hall neighbors, would do well to reflect on this. My prayer for them, this morning, is to find life-callings in which they will welcome the opportunity to die with their boots on.

Tsunami vs. Katrina

Shortly after Katrina devastated the Gulf Coast, Mississippi Governor Haley Barber was quoted as saying ‘this is our Tsunami’. The analogy is not entirely off the mark. America’s attention has been riveted on privations of residents in Gulfport, Biloxi, small Gulf coast towns and, especially New Orleans. Families in the New Orleans Superdome experienced conditions routinely encountered by Global South residents, but rarely by Americans. One could even draw parallels, for a brief period, between New Orleans and failed states such as Somalia, Liberia, Sierra Leone and parts of Southern Sudan.

But there are differences.

The number of deaths from Katrina may reach several thousand. The number of deaths from the Tsunami has exceeded 300,000. The total funds pledged by President George Bush for Tsunami relief was $950 million. Funds available from private insurers alone to cover insured losses alone will exceed $25 billion and this will be small fraction of the total funds spent. President Bush has promised the most massive relieve effort in the history of the United States.

Comparisons are invidious, as my mother used to tell me. To point out differences between the US and poor regions of South and Southeast Asia is not to denigrate the suffering of those impacted by Katrina. And the loss of even one life matters to those directly impacted by it.

There is one parallel between the impact of the Tsunami, Katrina and other national disasters.

The poorest and weakest among us always suffer the most.

What's up dude?

Fire alarm evacuations are a distinctive and unwelcome facet of residence hall living on American Univeristy’s South side. There was one last night, shortly after 12:00 AM. During my first semester in residence, Spring 2002, they occurred with dreary regularity. One is awakened from sleep at two or three AM by the clanging bells, stumbles into something and exits the building along with about 1800 other residents. If the evacuation is long – some last an hour or more – a haze of fatigue dims the next morning’s classes or work.

Last fall, adapting a suggestion of Collegiate Way editor Bob O’Hara, I began handing out candy during evacuations. Now, my large yellow candy bowl, illuminated by a flashing red light has become a familiar sight, though new to freshperson residents for whom evacuations are still a novel experience.

Dormgrandpop learned at this year’s resident assistant orientation that my first distributions were viewed suspiciously by some. Despite my best efforts, many residents complete and entire year – or more – on the south side without realizing that there is a faculty member in residence. If you didn’t know this, the appearance of a relatively mature gentleman, in nondestript clothing, walking among students at 2:30 in the morning handing out candy might, indeed be legitimate grounds for suspicion.

But over time the sharing of this common experience can be bonding. There are few times when I have the opportunity to meet more students, one-on-one than when I am handing out Reese Cups or Nestle Crunch Bars during an hour-long evacuation. Somehow, the barriers that impede communication between faculty and student don’t seem so great when we are both clad in similarly random attire, trying to sustain some level of humanity, at 2:30 in the morning.

This morning, I received a signal that my every present goal of bonding with this year’s cohort of residents is making headway. As I was walking through the Anderson lobby a young man, walking back after breakfast approached me. He slowed. As he looked at me, there was an obvious flash of recognition. He smiled and said:

“What’s up dude.”