DYNAMIC SYSTEMS MODULES AND MORAL VIRTUE - RECENT TWEETS

(The MCK quotes are from Book on a Thai Bhikkuni – Mae Chee Kaew, my recently completed contemplative practice reading.)

Awake at 4:30.  Thinking about dynamic systems molecules.  How can I best share them with my students?  At 5:15, I got up, and began writing.

What could be more fulfilling to a Professor than to have students producing work that exhibits disciplined learning and creativity? 

Moral virtue is subtle and complex.  It cannot be attained merely by reference to precepts and rules.  It must be an expression of the mind’s pure intentions.  MCK

All must die.  We can’t know when we will die, for certain. But we can be certain that death will come when the time is ripe.  MCK

Rules must be accompanied by empowering those “ruled” not to follow them for good reasons and to change them when circumstances dictate. The absence of such empowermen is a problem in many organizations.  As I learn more about Singapore, though I know very little as yet, I am concerned that in this very organized and smoothing functioning society, it may be a problem as well. 

Seeing stubbornness, gloom and delusion in themselves, intelligent people look for their own faults rather than faulting others.  MCK

The primal delusion that mobilizes the forces of greed and anger is always cunningly concealed in the deepest resources of the heart. MCK

Belated 75th Birthday Reflections - On Systems Thinking and Modeling, Pope Francis and the Spiritual Exercises of St. Ignatius Loyola.

Last year, on my 74^th birthday, also celebrated in Singapore, I reflected on the fact 74 years old  was about the same age that Deng Xiaoping consolidated power in China.  Within a few years, his leadership had placed China on a trajectory that would make it one of the world’s two leading economic powers. 

Last Tuesday, on my 75^th birthday, it was perhaps appropriate that I would “celebrate” by spending the day writing a concise summary – the most recent of many I have written – setting forth principles for crafting public-policy oriented system dynamics models.  In the evening, following a discussion of mathematical subroutines that play a role in my students’ present modeling projects, I presented the principles I had first begun drafting several days earlier when the need to do so awakened me at 5:30 in the morning.

The exercise was motivated by an exchange with an outstanding former student who called seeking feedback on important public policy modeling project in which she was playing a leading role.  Her questions made it clear that she had forgotten one of the most fundamental principles of system dynamics model building:  one always models a problem; one never models a system. 

I was reminded of an observation that system dynamics guru Professor Jay W. Forrester has made in writing and in person on many occasions.  By the time students reach graduate school, most have experienced years or creativity-stifling training in linear causal thinking.  They have had little training – mostly none at all – that would prepare them to understand a world beset by problematic behaviors produced by complex systems comprising stocks, flows, and feedback loops.  Both Deng Xiaopeng and Lee Kuan Yew, among their many gifts, possessed this fundamental understanding.  Millions of Singaporeans and many more millions or Chinese have been given opportunities to live better lives because of this.

Here is a listing of the major points, outlining the somewhat passionate appeal I made to my students about the importance of good modeling practice

¨  system dyanmics modeling is, by no means the appropriate method to address every public policy problem.

¨  a system dynamics modeling project often begins with a story, though some do not

¨  What motivates us to undertake a system dynamics modeling project?   We are seeking answers to questions about why some probematic behavior has occurred, is occurring or may occur in the future.

¨  A generic model or generic structures that highlight important dynamics can be important points of departure

¨  In general, the better that a theoretically grounded model, supported by data, reproduces the past the more confident we are about its usefulness in helping us to anticipate and shape the future.  of the two, theoretical grounding must precede reproduction.

¨  The issue of “validity” or “confidence building” cannot be separated from the audience to whom the model is primarily addressed.  “Validity” means different things to different audiences.

¨  However as Donella Meadows emphasized in her writings (cf. the Electronic Oracle) and in her Life, the unquestioned integrity of the model builder should always provide a context within which assertions of validity are grounded.

When I awoke on Wednesday morning, and tuned my iPhone to the BBC, I learned that God had given the Roman Catholic Church a new leader and provided me with a potential new role model.  Cardinal Jorge Mario Bengoglio was 76 years old as he became the spiritual leader of the world’s Roman Catholics.  Apart from his age, I was heartened by fact that Cardinal Bengoglio was a Jesuit, a holy order for which I have great respect.  However he did not chose to name himself Pope Ignatius Loyola (after the founder of the Jesuit order)  but Pope Francis (after St. Francis of Assisi).  I learned that after his election, Pope Francis stopped off at the hotel where he had been staying to personally pay the bill and pick up his baggage.

But was Pope Francis, like Lee Kuan Yew and Deng Xiaoping an instinctive systems thinker?  The Jesuits are known for independent thinking and intellectual brilliance.  Seeking evidence, I turned to the pages of Saint Ignatius Loyola’s Spiritual Exercises (The P.J. Kennedy & Sons. Edition, 1909 – On Line)  I spent more of the evening than I had intended reading (or in some cases skimming) the entire 100 pp. of this remarkable, influential document.  There was much about spirituality and meditative practice, akin to Buddhist texts I have been reading but – candidly – little about systems thinking.  The only passages I found were these.

ELEVENTH RULE (p. 98) To praise positive and scholastic learning. Because, as it is

more proper to the Positive Doctors, as St. Jerome, St. Augustine and St. Gregory,

etc., to move the heart to love and serve God our Lord in everything; so it is more

proper to the Scholastics, as St. Thomas, St. Bonaventure, and to the Master of the

Sentences, etc., to define or explain for our times the things necessary for eternal

salvation; and to combat and explain better all errors and all fallacies. For the

Scholastic Doctors, as they are more modern, not only help themselves with the true

understanding of the Sacred Scripture and of the Positive and holy Doctors, but

also, they being enlightened and clarified by the Divine virtue, help themselves by

the Councils, Canons and Constitutions of our holy Mother the Church. 

Among those listed, St. Augustine and St. Thomas Aquinas, the two whose works I know best, would certainly qualify as systems thinkers.

In a section entitled contemplation to gain love  (p. 64) I discovered this passage.

FIRST POINT. The First Point is, to bring to memory the benefits received, of

Creation, Redemption and particular gifts, pondering with much feeling how much

God our Lord has done for me, and how much He has given me of what He has, and

then the same Lord desires to give me Himself as much as He can, according to His

Divine ordination.

And with this to reflect on myself, considering with much reason and justice,

what I ought on my side to offer and give to His Divine Majesty, that is to say,

everything that is mine, and myself with it, as one who makes an offering with

much feeling:

SECOND POINT. The second, to look how God dwells in creatures, in the

elements, giving them being, in the plants vegetating, in the animals feeling in

them, in men giving them to understand:21 and so in me, giving me being,

animating me, giving me sensation and making me to understand;  likewise

making a temple of me, being created to the likeness and image of His Divine

Majesty; reflecting as much on myself in the way which is said in the first Point, or

in another which I feel to be better. In the same manner will be done on each Point

which  follows.

THIRD POINT. The third, to consider how God works and labors for me in all

things created on the face of the earth -- that is, behaves like one who labors -- as in

the heavens, elements, plants, fruits, cattle, etc., giving them being, preserving

them, giving them vegetation and sensation, etc.

Then to reflect on myself…

Will Pope Francis prove to be a systems thinker and will be prove to be a role model for systems thinking in matters spiritual and temporal?  Will he transform the Roman Catholic Church spritually as Deng Xiaoping transformed China economically?  Will he serve as a useful role model for me and one that I can share with my students?

And what will it be my karma to contribute, in the years remaining to me, however many those may be?

What an odd 75^th birthday reflection this became. 

           

Four Priciples that May be Helpful to Those Seeking to Build and Use Dynamics Systems Models as Policy Aids

For the second Spring term in succession I am teaching “Dynamic Modeling of Public Policy Systems” at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore.   This is a course in system dynamics modeling.  It is an approach to addressing problems of public policy (and other problems too) by simulating them.  Much to my surprise there are 37 students registered for the course, with an additional seven auditors.  The other night, as I was thinking about the course, principles came to me that, if followed, would be helpful to those seeking to build, use and communicate about these models.  The principles are these. 

1. Not all problems lend themselves to system dynamics modeling.
2. Not all problems that lend themselves to system dynamics modeling should be undertaken by students as their first independent modeling project.
3. It is easier to make a simple model more complex than to simplify a complex one
4. In working with policy makers, communicating lessons learned from the model is more important than communicating about the model.

An illuminating discovery: Ludwig Wittgenstein’s first academic studies were in mechanical and then aeronautical engineering.

The following is a note I shared earlier today with friends, colleagues and two mentors. A number have been concerned as I have, with broader philosophhical and epistemological implications of the paradigm that systems engineering and system dynamics modeling embody. As friends (and former Ph.D. students) know, Wittgenstein has been my favorite philosopher ever since I first encountered his work. My note follows:

Dear Friends, Colleagues and Mentors,

I was looking into the biography of the philosopher, Ludwig Wittgenstein, this morning, and came across the following interesting fact, of which I had been unaware. Wittgenstein began his formal studies in mechanical engineering and received a diploma in the field. He then turned to aeronautical engineering. As those interested in his life know, Wittgenstein’s reading of Bertrand Russell’s Foundations of Mathematics redirected his interests toward pure mathematics. However he must have, initially, viewed Russell’s work through the lens of his early training, which would have included early incarnations of the mathematics of feedback control. A brief excerpt from his Wikipedia biography follows.

He began his studies in mechanical engineering at the Technische Hochschule in Charlottenburg, Berlin, on 23 October 1906, lodging with the family of a professor there, Dr Jolles. He attended for three semesters, and was awarded a diploma on 5 May 1908, after developing an interest in aeronautics.[58] He arrived at the Victoria University of Manchester in the spring of 1908 to do his doctorate, full of plans for aeronautical projects, including designing and flying his own plane. He conducted research into the behavior of kites in the upper atmosphere, experimenting at a meteorological observation site near Glossop.[59] He also worked on the design of a propeller with small jet engines on the end of its blades, something he patented in 1911 and which earned him a research studentship from the university in the autumn of 1908.[60]

(As a personal aside, we prepared the computer programs for presenting Mankind at the Turning Point: The Second Report to the Club of Rome in the computing centre of the Berlin Technische Hochschule. As we worked late into the night, we were not aware that, perhaps, Wittgenstein’s ghost was empowering us.)

OBSERVE THE WORLD CAREFULLY BEFORE THEORIZING

This was a note I shared with my "Modeling of Dynamic Systems" class at Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy the other day. The course's subject matter is the methodology and applications of System Dynamics Modeling developed by Professor Jay W Forrester at MIT, beginning in the 1950s. The best known application is the book, The Limits to Growth, The 40th aniversary of this landmark book, authored by the late Donella Meadows and others, is being celebrated this year.

Dear Class Members,

As you know, I shared an excerpt from Tuesday night’s lecture notes with systems engineering and system dynamics friends, evoking most interesting responses. As I was reflecting on this, the thought that titles this message came to me. It is based on my studies of Urban Dynamics and a classic which I have not assigned, but which, like Urban Dynamics, had life-changing implications for me: Herbert Simon’s Administrative Behavior. This latter work, which may be the best book on decision-making ever written, grew from field studies of municipal budgeting in Illinois. Forrester’s Urban Dynamics grew from conversations with mayors as you know. His Market Growth model grew from conversations with business executives.

I checked out references to Simon on the web because I wanted to get the exact publication date of Administrative Behaviour - 1947 - which grew from Professor Simon’s dissertation research. Even though I know Simon’s work well, and both reading his work and my very few personal interactions with him were life-changing for me, I was amazed by the compilation of achievements that Wikipedia provided. Since we have spoken frequently about Professor Forrester, but only rarely about Professor Simon, I wanted to share the compilation with you. JR.

Simon was among the founding fathers of several of today's important scientific domains, including artificial intelligence, information processing, decision-making, problem-solving, attention economics, organization theory, complex systems, and computer simulation of scientific discovery. He coined the terms bounded rationality and satisficing, and was the first to analyze the architecture of complexity and to propose a preferential attachment mechanism to explain power law distributions.^[citation needed^]

He also received many top-level honors later in life. These include: the ACM's Turing Award for making "basic contributions to artificial intelligence, the psychology of human cognition, and list processing" (1975); the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics "for his pioneering research into the decision-making process within economic organizations" (1978); the National Medal of Science (1986); and the APA's Award for Outstanding Lifetime Contributions to Psychology (1993).

As a testament to his interdisciplinary approach, Simon was affiliated with such varied Carnegie Mellon departments as the School of Computer Science, Tepper School of Business, Departments of Philosophy, Social and Decision Sciences, and Psychology.

Could there be a member of our class who willl make similar contributions to those of Professor Simon or Professor Forrester in their lives?

What one hopes for in professional meetings but rarely, if ever, encounters

July 30th

The occasion of my brief Korean trip was System Dynamics Society Annual meeting. The Society meetings are what one hopes conventions and association meetings will provide - high quality papers, conversations with colleagues sharing common interests, an opportunity to make new friends and a remarkable sense of community.

The field was founded by one of the great intellects of modern times - Professor Jay W. Forrester, now emeritus at MIT’s Sloan School of Management. Since the field is new - the first papers appeared in the 1950s - most of the field’s leaders and founders are not only still living but attend the Annual Meetings regularly. (Tragic exceptions are MacArthur Genius grantee, Donella Meadows and creator of the first graphical user interface for System Dynamics Modeling (Stella), Barry Richmond). Most studied with Professor Forrester at MIT (as I did for a memorable year, but later in my professional career). In contrast to many fields, leaders and luminaries mingle freely and informally with newcomers and students. No other field, in my experience, is as friendly, welcoming and inclusive. The world’s most widely read book based on a computer model The Limits to Growth (the first report to the Club of Rome) uses System Dnamics theory/methodology. So do parts of other "global models."

The fact that all members share a common theoretical-methodological language (emphasizing dynamic behavior generated by feedback loops) also sets the field apart. Whether the topic of discussion is sustainability of the planet earth, urban development in Asia (my own present interest), efficiency in project management or improving product marketing in the pharmaceutical industry, all can understand the presentation and contribute. Discussions are lively, informed, respectful and collegial.

Even if you feel you have no interest in System Dynamics modeling or have never even heard of it, you should check out the System Dynamics Society website and even consider attending an annual meeting (the next will be in July 2011 in Washington DC). The experience will remind you of what you may have hoped for in a professional association but had - sadly - come to accept that attaining that vision of professionalism, community and collegiality was probably not possible.

Some days are diamonds, some days are stones

This posting’s title, describing yesterday, is from one of many John Denver songs that is a favorite.

For some weeks, I have been aggressively promoting System Dynamics modeling to senior Singapore government officials with whom I am in contact. I passionately believe that this powerful approach to policy problem-solving is a natural for Singapore and that Singapore could provide a model for a governance strategy, emphasizing the long-term that will be needed if ‘sustainability” issues, threatening the survival of the human race, are to be dealt with proactively and effectively. Many elements of such a strategy are already in place. I also believe that Singapore provides a unique opportunity to have its young people become “systems citizens,” by introducing System Dynamics modeling as a requirement in secondary school curricula throughout the island. “Systems citizens” is a term coined by the System Dynamics Learning Exchange, a group comprising dedicated secondary school teachers who have introduced System Dynamics modeling in their classes, with remarkable results.

In response to earlier, promotional efforts, I was asked by officials with whom I have been dialoguing to provide examples of “how System Dynamics modeling had contributed to policy problem-solving.” To seek out the very best examples, I contacted System Dynamics Community members of long-standing who were leaders in the field. They produced a wealth of examples, making a compelling case for the approaches’ effectiveness in addressing problems of crucial importance to Singapore. I provided a concise focused summary, making the case with attachments that documented my points. In sum, I did everything years of experience have taught me about making a highly useful methodology accessible to ‘policy makers.’

Yesterday I met with those I have been seeking to influence, for lunch. While the lunch had no agenda; its purpose was social; I was hoping for some indication that my persuasive efforts might be producing some of breakthrough; some sort of paradigm shift in thinking similar to what I experienced when I first encountered System Dynamics modeling. But I received little more than polite acknowledgement. I should not have been surprised. Building credibility takes time. Achieving breakthroughs requires tenacity and patience. New ways of thinking are being injected into an ongoing culture and world view that seems to be working well and in which substantial investments have been made. Why change? My experience should have reminded me not to be disappointed with modest incremental progress, but as reflected on our conversations, enroute to my next meeting, I was.

[The day was not a total stone. At that next meeting, I received very positive encouragement for a project to create a new higher education institution in the Maldives, moving forward on a project initiated four years ago that had been lying fallow until very recently. More about that in another posting.]

The day’s last event was attending a yoga class at the local “West Side” Community Center. My interest was inspired by a “Speaking of Faith” podcast featuring Yoga Guru Sean Corn. When I made inquiries about the class, a few days earlier, I was surprised to learn that it had an upper age limit - 55 years! Those were “the rules.” I know that rules are important in Singapore. However in response to Community Center staff inquiries, the instructor said he was willing to meet with me and allow me to attend the first class.

Though the class was billed as ‘for beginners’ most participants seemed to be taking it for the second or third time. The 75 minute regimen was arduous, though I was able to stick with it albeit with a few aches and pains. Certainly, I was not the most proficient; neither was I the least. But in our conversation afterwards the instructor said he would prefer that I not continue. While he admired my “determination and strength,” he told me, I was lacking in “suppleness.” I could not disagree. That was why I had sought to enroll. He was concerned that as sessions become more intense, I might injure myself. He would then be on the dock for making an exception to the rules. He suggested I seek out a class with a “gentler regimen.” This I intend to do.

Walking home, fixing a light dinner and completing end-of-the-day chores, I reflected on the realities of the aging process. Though I am always reminding myself that the grains of sand in my hour glass are running out - that I must use each day to the fullest - I was more conscious of this than usual. At the end of this long day I did not find the realization totally empowering. “Some days diamonds, others are stones.”

The next day (this morning) I chose the Dhammapada chapter on “Old Age” to accompany my meditation session. The first verse is entitled: “Seek the light.”

What is laughter, what is joy, when the world is ever burning?”

Shrouded by darkness, would you not seek the light?

Sharing news of an exciting initiative and postdoctoral fellowship opportunity at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore

As regular readers know, I will be spending the spring term in Singapore. I have been working with my new colleagues at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy to recruit a postdoctoral research fellow who would focus on System Dynamics modeling, systems thinking and public policy. I have written to a number of friends and colleagues about this new position and I decided I would share the information in this venue as well. My ltter follows.

Dear Dormgrandpop Readers,

I wanted to share news of an exciting postdoctoral fellowship opportunity that has recently been announced at the Institute of Water Policy of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore. You may have seen the position posted on the System Dynamics Society’s “Career Link” page, but I also wanted to write to you separately. Filling this position is a top priority for the Institute of Water Policy. The Institute is lead by Dr. K.E. Seetharam, who is on leave from a long-term affiliation with the Asian Development Bank, focusing on sustainable urban development and water resources issues. Recently, he was also named to head the newly created Global Asia Institute at the National University of Singapore. His MA studies included work in System Dynamics modeling with Khalid Saeed. I had the opportunity to work with Dr. Seetharam during a two week stay in Singapore this October and was greatly impressed by his vision, leadership ability and commitment to systems thinking. The postdoctoral fellow will play a key role in initiatives that are intended to ramp up both teaching and research, emphasizing systems thinking and system Dynamics Modeling applied to sustainable development issues, at the Lee Kuan Yew School.

That one of the top public policy schools in the world, located at a hub of Asian Development, is taking such an initiative at this time should be good news for all members of the System Dynamics modeling community and for those concerned with broadening the impact of systems thinking more generally. However I also have a personal interest. I have been offered and have accepted a six month Visiting Professorship, beginning in January. The position will provide me an opportunity to help move this initiative forward, under Dr. Seetharam’s leadership. Playing a role in identifying candidates for the postdoctoral fellowship which, for an outstanding candidate, could be upgraded to a Visiting Assistant Professorship, is one way that I am seeking to help. I will also be seeking to draw lessons about sustainable development and sustainable poverty alleviation from Singapore’s long-term development experience, using System Dynamics modeling.

The fellow to be hired will be collaborating with me on this work and there will be additional support from graduate students, working part-time. I anticipate that the project will extend over a longer term than the upcoming six month period that I will be in residence. Eventually we hope to apply the lessons learned throughout Asia and, if appropriate, more widely. I full well realize, of course, that there are many, including yourself, who might well be better qualified to play this role. Fortunately for me, however it would appear that Seetharam and others saw my interest in deepening understanding of Singapore’s development, using System Dynamics modeling, during a sabbatical year, as a serendipitous target of opportunity.

The position description follows. I have also attached a copy as a separate document.

My best wishes to you and your families for the holidays.

John

Research Fellow (Systems Thinking for Public Policy) at the Institute of Water Policy (IWP), Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy

The position provides an excellent opportunity to contribute to cutting-edge research in the application of systems thinking and dynamic modeling of public policy, with an emphasis on urban development, particularly in Asia. The fellow is expected to play a key role in a project that will use System Dynamics modeling to learn from urban development success stories, especially Singapore. Drawing, in particular, on work of the Asian Development Bank, urbanization in Asia is seen as a Yin Yang dynamic. While urban growth and especially the growth of megacities is viewed as problematic, it is also in cities that the economic future of Asia will inevitably be shaped. Cities must, be the engines of economic growth, creativity innovation and revitalization if looming development challenges now on the horizon are to be dealt with effectively. The project’s goal is to design development trajectories and public policies leading to urban communities that are beautiful, livable, sustainable, resilient and that interact symbiotically with their environments. In addition to participating in the research program of the Institute, the fellow will also have some opportunity to pursue independent research so long as the contributions to knowledge and delivered outputs are of a high standard. The candidate will also be expected to participate in some of the teaching and outreach programs of the Institute in the area of system dynamics modeling.

Duration

The position will be full-time for 1 year, with possibility of renewal depending on the quality of work. Compensation is negotiable and will be competitive, based on the candidate’s qualifications, experience and track record. Housing and round-trip transportation to Singapore may be provided.

General Requirements

The successful candidate will be an accomplished researcher. He/She should have a strong background in systems thinking and system dynamics modeling. Added assets are experience with seeking and managing research grants, publications in peer-reviewed journals, and experience in research collaboration where currently employed.

Essential Qualifications & Requirements

PhD in a relevant discipline with a strong background and competency in system dynamics

High level of competency in one of the three following system dynamics modeling software: STELLA/iThink or Vensim or Powersim.

Reasonable background and skills in quantitative modeling, statistical/econometric analysis

Broad understanding of public policy issues of one or more Asian economies and background. Background in urban development and environmental sustainability, with a particular emphasis on water resource management and policy will be a desirable qualification but is not absolutely essential.

Publications in reputed journals, presentations at international conferences, and experience in seeking and managing research grants

Excellent verbal, written, and interpersonal communication skills

Application Procedure

Please submit the following documents electronically to Bernard Tan at bernard.tan@nus.edu.sg .

Curriculum vita and a one page professional resume

Statement of qualifications covering the areas listed below.

A 250 word note presenting your views on urban development issues and the role you would see yourself playing at the Lee Kuan Yew School.

Questions about the position should be addressed to Bernard Tan as well. He will forward them to the appropriate individual for a response.

STATEMENT OF QUALIFICATIONS AND EXPERIENCE

RESEARCH FELLOW (SYSTEMS THINKING FOR PUBLIC POLICY)

The listing that follows describes the qualifications and experience we are seeking in applicants for this position and the documentation we ask that candidates provide in support of their applications.

PHD degree - Please provide your dissertation title, the year your degree was awarded, the institution from which it was received and the name of your supervisor.

Evidence of skills in quantitative modeling, especially System Dynamics modeling, plus reasonable knowledge of and skills in other quantitative/modeling methods such as statistics, econometrics, and/or mathematical programming – provide information on courses completed, practical work and publications, if any.

Knowledge of a range of policy areas and related disciplines including, for example water, energy, agriculture, environment, applied economics, population and urban development – provide information on courses completed, practical work and publications, if any.

Broad understanding of public policy issues in one or more Asian economies – provide information on courses completed, practical work and publications, if any.

Publications – please provide a listing, with complete citations of published work covering at least the period from 2006-2009. Feel free to include earlier works if you wish.

Experience in seeking and managing research grants – please provide details including dates, the size of the grant, the scope of work, a description of your role and the results produced.

Experience in research collaboration within or outside of the institution at which you are currently employed – please provide details of the collaborations, the names of collaborators and results produced.

Excellent verbal, written and interpersonal communication skills – if you wish, you may provide further evidence of such skills to the degree that you feel they are not adequately addressed in the materials provided above.