Belated 75th Birthday Reflections - On Systems Thinking and Modeling, Pope Francis and the Spiritual Exercises of St. Ignatius Loyola.

Last year, on my 74^th birthday, also celebrated in Singapore, I reflected on the fact 74 years old  was about the same age that Deng Xiaoping consolidated power in China.  Within a few years, his leadership had placed China on a trajectory that would make it one of the world’s two leading economic powers. 

Last Tuesday, on my 75^th birthday, it was perhaps appropriate that I would “celebrate” by spending the day writing a concise summary – the most recent of many I have written – setting forth principles for crafting public-policy oriented system dynamics models.  In the evening, following a discussion of mathematical subroutines that play a role in my students’ present modeling projects, I presented the principles I had first begun drafting several days earlier when the need to do so awakened me at 5:30 in the morning.

The exercise was motivated by an exchange with an outstanding former student who called seeking feedback on important public policy modeling project in which she was playing a leading role.  Her questions made it clear that she had forgotten one of the most fundamental principles of system dynamics model building:  one always models a problem; one never models a system. 

I was reminded of an observation that system dynamics guru Professor Jay W. Forrester has made in writing and in person on many occasions.  By the time students reach graduate school, most have experienced years or creativity-stifling training in linear causal thinking.  They have had little training – mostly none at all – that would prepare them to understand a world beset by problematic behaviors produced by complex systems comprising stocks, flows, and feedback loops.  Both Deng Xiaopeng and Lee Kuan Yew, among their many gifts, possessed this fundamental understanding.  Millions of Singaporeans and many more millions or Chinese have been given opportunities to live better lives because of this.

Here is a listing of the major points, outlining the somewhat passionate appeal I made to my students about the importance of good modeling practice

¨  system dyanmics modeling is, by no means the appropriate method to address every public policy problem.

¨  a system dynamics modeling project often begins with a story, though some do not

¨  What motivates us to undertake a system dynamics modeling project?   We are seeking answers to questions about why some probematic behavior has occurred, is occurring or may occur in the future.

¨  A generic model or generic structures that highlight important dynamics can be important points of departure

¨  In general, the better that a theoretically grounded model, supported by data, reproduces the past the more confident we are about its usefulness in helping us to anticipate and shape the future.  of the two, theoretical grounding must precede reproduction.

¨  The issue of “validity” or “confidence building” cannot be separated from the audience to whom the model is primarily addressed.  “Validity” means different things to different audiences.

¨  However as Donella Meadows emphasized in her writings (cf. the Electronic Oracle) and in her Life, the unquestioned integrity of the model builder should always provide a context within which assertions of validity are grounded.

When I awoke on Wednesday morning, and tuned my iPhone to the BBC, I learned that God had given the Roman Catholic Church a new leader and provided me with a potential new role model.  Cardinal Jorge Mario Bengoglio was 76 years old as he became the spiritual leader of the world’s Roman Catholics.  Apart from his age, I was heartened by fact that Cardinal Bengoglio was a Jesuit, a holy order for which I have great respect.  However he did not chose to name himself Pope Ignatius Loyola (after the founder of the Jesuit order)  but Pope Francis (after St. Francis of Assisi).  I learned that after his election, Pope Francis stopped off at the hotel where he had been staying to personally pay the bill and pick up his baggage.

But was Pope Francis, like Lee Kuan Yew and Deng Xiaoping an instinctive systems thinker?  The Jesuits are known for independent thinking and intellectual brilliance.  Seeking evidence, I turned to the pages of Saint Ignatius Loyola’s Spiritual Exercises (The P.J. Kennedy & Sons. Edition, 1909 – On Line)  I spent more of the evening than I had intended reading (or in some cases skimming) the entire 100 pp. of this remarkable, influential document.  There was much about spirituality and meditative practice, akin to Buddhist texts I have been reading but – candidly – little about systems thinking.  The only passages I found were these.

ELEVENTH RULE (p. 98) To praise positive and scholastic learning. Because, as it is

more proper to the Positive Doctors, as St. Jerome, St. Augustine and St. Gregory,

etc., to move the heart to love and serve God our Lord in everything; so it is more

proper to the Scholastics, as St. Thomas, St. Bonaventure, and to the Master of the

Sentences, etc., to define or explain for our times the things necessary for eternal

salvation; and to combat and explain better all errors and all fallacies. For the

Scholastic Doctors, as they are more modern, not only help themselves with the true

understanding of the Sacred Scripture and of the Positive and holy Doctors, but

also, they being enlightened and clarified by the Divine virtue, help themselves by

the Councils, Canons and Constitutions of our holy Mother the Church. 

Among those listed, St. Augustine and St. Thomas Aquinas, the two whose works I know best, would certainly qualify as systems thinkers.

In a section entitled contemplation to gain love  (p. 64) I discovered this passage.

FIRST POINT. The First Point is, to bring to memory the benefits received, of

Creation, Redemption and particular gifts, pondering with much feeling how much

God our Lord has done for me, and how much He has given me of what He has, and

then the same Lord desires to give me Himself as much as He can, according to His

Divine ordination.

And with this to reflect on myself, considering with much reason and justice,

what I ought on my side to offer and give to His Divine Majesty, that is to say,

everything that is mine, and myself with it, as one who makes an offering with

much feeling:

SECOND POINT. The second, to look how God dwells in creatures, in the

elements, giving them being, in the plants vegetating, in the animals feeling in

them, in men giving them to understand:21 and so in me, giving me being,

animating me, giving me sensation and making me to understand;  likewise

making a temple of me, being created to the likeness and image of His Divine

Majesty; reflecting as much on myself in the way which is said in the first Point, or

in another which I feel to be better. In the same manner will be done on each Point

which  follows.

THIRD POINT. The third, to consider how God works and labors for me in all

things created on the face of the earth -- that is, behaves like one who labors -- as in

the heavens, elements, plants, fruits, cattle, etc., giving them being, preserving

them, giving them vegetation and sensation, etc.

Then to reflect on myself…

Will Pope Francis prove to be a systems thinker and will be prove to be a role model for systems thinking in matters spiritual and temporal?  Will he transform the Roman Catholic Church spritually as Deng Xiaoping transformed China economically?  Will he serve as a useful role model for me and one that I can share with my students?

And what will it be my karma to contribute, in the years remaining to me, however many those may be?

What an odd 75^th birthday reflection this became. 

           

...you cannot do it without discipline

Early during Lee Kuan Yew’s term in office as Prime Minister, one of his many campaigns was Singapore as a “clean and green society.” A new Singaporean friend told me that when the Prime Minister was driven around the island, an aide always accompanied him. When he saw something that did not come up to his standards, the aide would take note and the responsible official would receive a call from the Prime Minister’s Office and sometimes from the Prime Minister personally. Such calls were not welcomed.

Singapore is still green, and with flowers - often orchids - blooming on pedestrian walk-overs and in other public spaces. And it is very still clean by US or European standards - in fact by the standards of virtualy any country that I have visited. It is a garden city, as Lee Kuan Yew intended it to be. But it seems to me that standards have slipped since the days of his active leadership.

The other morning, adjacent to one of the shuttle bus stops of the National University of Singapore Campus, there was a large trash bag on the ground, possibly awaiting pick up. The bag had broken open and a some trash was strewn about in the vicinity. A few of the back birds I call “Carews” (because of their distinctive call) were picking at the remains. I had a flashback to Sri Lanka, where trash piles are often found in public spaces, with large black crows - much larger than Carews - feasting.

There were perhaps twenty older staff and students standing by. It would have taken one of two of them no more than two or three minutes to clean up the mess, but none did (I was in the bus and so could not do so). They seemed to accept it as simply part of the landscape. I wondered if the response would have been the same ten for fifteen years ago - was this a special case in a special setting or are Singaporeans now viewing the maintenance of public spaces as someone else’s responsibility?

This lead to me to reflect on trash throwers more generally. It is hard to imagine that many people would argue for trash strewn public spaces as a matter of principle; they simply don’t want to take responsibility for the whole. Paradoxically, neglect of public spaces was worst in Communist countries i visited during the Cold War. In Singapore, there have been government campaigns to communicate high standards of public responsibility and civility. Many foreigners and even some Singaporeans deride this. I do not. The alternative, among other pathologies, is public spaces that resemble those of neighboring Malaysia and other developing nations, including those parts of Washington DC that resemble a developing nation.

At the entrance to the Lee Kuan Yew school, and at several other locations as well, there is a saying of the former Prime Minister (his present title is ‘Minister Mentor‘) featured prominently. “If you want to realize your hopes and dreams, you cannot do it without discipline.”

I believe that trash discarders in Singapore can, if observed, by the police, can receive heavy fines. Hopefully these laws are still being enforced. For repeat offenders, perhaps a few strokes of the cane would be in order as well.

Singapore's Independence - viewed from a Sri Lankan vantage point

A friend wrote to me saying she had been reading about Singapore. She had a question about how Singapore became independencd. Here was my response.

Singapore actually gained its independence in 1965. The story is an interesting one. It was part of the Malaysian Federation. However in 1965 it appeared that the Chinese dominated People’s Action Party, lead by Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew (of Singapore) might gain a majority in the Malaysian Parliament by winning substantial numbers of Malay votes. The meant that Lee, whose ancestry was Chinese, would become Prime Minister of the entire federation. This was intolerable to the communally oriented Malay leaders (who were very much like their Sinhalese counterparts in Sri Lanka) and they essentially kicked Singapore out of the Federation. Too bad that it was not feasible for the Sinhalese communalists to employ the same strategy in Sri Lanka in 1965. That beautiful country could have been spared a lot of grief and heartache, which seems to be continuing.

Lee Kuan Yew’s massive autobiography (more than 1500 pp.) is a major reading project, but I know you are a serious reader and I found it a great way to understand Singapore from the perspective of one of the World’s remarkable leaders.

Leadings - powerful messages that may be available to those who listen.

Most mornings I am able to set aside time for quiet reflection, reading and, most recently, Tibetan Buddhist meditative practice.  On rare occasions, during these times, I seem to experience what Quakers call ‘Leadings.’  (For those interested in Quakers’ views on leadings, information can be found on the website of New York Yearly Meeting of the Religious Society of Friends, http://www.nyym.org/leadings/ ).  ‘Divine Guidance’ is how some define a Leading.  However I am not entirely comfortable with the notion that an anthropomorphic Divine Being (God) has taken a personal interest in me.  This seems presumptuous.  My preferred definition of Leadings is  ‘powerful messages of guidance that may be available to those who listen.’

In my life, Leadings have been few, but defining.  The decision to embark on an entirely new research direction, studying the relationship between conflict and development, responded to a Leading.  So did my decision, nine years ago,  to become Director of American University’s Center for Teaching Excellence.   Two years ago, I received a leading to change the direction of my research once again; to begin focusing on the question how do nations that transition from high to low levels of poverty, over time, achieve that goal.

Soon after visiting one of the nations I propose to study, Singapore, this summer, I received another leading.  I was reading the magnificent autobiography of Singapore’s former Primer Minister, Lee Kuan Yew,  In a concluding chapter, he wrote of his decision to step down as Prime Minister.  He explained how he observed the energy levels of some Cabinet colleagues, who had been at his side since Singapore’s founding, flagging. Though still vigorous,  Lee recognized that his own energy level, too, was less than it once had been. Soon afterwards, he announced his resignation from the Prime Ministers post, accepting, instead, the position of “Senior Minister.’ In this role he has continued to attend cabinet meetings and provide policy guidance, but has distanced himself from day-to-day decision making.  

Reflecting on Lee’s words during a period of quiet reflection (I was then in Malaysia) I received the Leading that it was time to step down as CTE Director.  Soon I began exploring, through reading and meetings with my personal management consultant, how I could effect a transition that was both seamless and sustained the Center’s eight year trajectory of growth and high performance.  I remembered an aphorism taught me by my mother (who was a virtually inexhaustible source of aphorisms): 'always leave the stage while the audience is still applauding.'

Leadings provide direction. I believe they must be taken seriously.  But the scenario to which they point can be uncertain... ambiguous.  The scenario that is now unfolding, following my announcement that I would be ‘passing the baton’ (Lee Kuan Yew’s phrase), is different than the one I might have hoped for.  Leadings can point us to new directions, but life’s realities periodically remind us that we can not fully control the destinies of others or even our own.

First impressions of communal preferences in Malaysia: pros and cons

Saturday June 21, 2008
With kind assistance from a professional colleague of my son, I was able to secure a car and driver for two days of on-and-off-the-beaten path explorations in Malaysia. Thursday, we drove to Malaka, a seaside destination about three hours from KL. Friday, we began, at my request, with a sociological tour of KL, visiting areas occupied by a variety of social strata and in each of Malaysia’s three major communal groups - Malay, Chinese and Indian (predominantly Tamil). Later we stopped briefly at some more traditional tourist destinations. We lunched at a very modest noodle shop, owned by the same Chinese family for forty years and now being managed by the third generation. My Thursday’s driver was an Indian man in his late thirties. Friday’s driver was a Chinese man in his sixties. The other individuals with whom I socialized have been either Chinese and expatriate and, of course, I have been living in the heart of KL’s Chinatown.

I mention the communal identities of my several informants because my first, necessarily superficial impressions of Malaysia’s communal (Bumiputra) preference system are obviously reflect the minority vantage point of those with whom I have spoken. Also, they reflect the my recent readings of Malaysian historyl about half the first volume of Lee Kuan Yew’s massive and engagingly written autobiography. More about Lee Kuan Yew in another blog. Unfortunately, I have yet to gain any deep exposure to the culture and vantage point of Malaysia’s dominant community.

In academic reading I had done previously, Malaysia’s system of preferential treatment for ‘sons of the soil,’ implemented after the 1969 communal riots, was presented as a source of social stability. In my American University course, “Conflict and Development’ I contrasted this with Sri Lankan government policies that have contributed to more than twenty years of intense communal strife. But pro-Malay policies have been a driving force in Malaysia’s political culture since before the time of independence. In particular, according to Lee Kuan Yew, it was fear of Chinese domination, in a democratic polity, that lead Malaysian independence leader, Tunku Abdul Rahman, to press for Singapore’s detachment from the Malaysian Federation.

The ‘success’ of the policy can be seen by contrasting Malaysia’s vibrant modern capital city with Colombo, now partially paralyzed once again by the reality and threat of militant terrorist bombings. But the resentment of the Malaysia’s minority communities, as communicated by my Chinese and Indian informants is real. Preferential university admissions, they report, mean that qualified Chinese and Indian students are denied admission and qualified Chinese and Indian faculty members are denied appointments. The same is true in the government services. The security forces - army, navy and police - are almost entirely Malay. Minority community members do not join because they know that even if they are accepted as recruits, they will be denied promotions.

The contrast between Malaysia’s system of communal preferences and Singapore’s meritocratic system is widely cited. One informant told me the story of a talented young Chinese woman who was denied admission to a Malaysian university and then accepted a scholarship to Singapore’s national university. He told me that such scholarships are available, on the basis of competitive examinations to all Malaysian secondary school graduates. There are three requirements. First, candidates must past a rigorous competitive entrance examination. Second, candidates are subjected to weekly performance tests. If their work falls below a required standard, they are sent home. Third, after receiving their degree, graduates must work in Singapore for at least two years. The hope, my informant told me, was that the ‘best and the brightest’ would remain in Singapore, and many do.

Contrasts between Singapore and Malaysia were frequently cited by my informants, though one told me he had chosen to remain here because of its slower pace and less intensely competitive culture. One was the public transport system. KL has three systems of public transport, an elevated light rail, a monorail, and a train to the airport. But, I was told, the systems are run by independent companies, have different fare systems and do not connect with one another. Also, I was told that there are many public transit stations in areas occupied by Malay community members and far fewer in those occupied by the minorities. When visiting KL’s magnificent Chinese temple complex, I was told that the construction and maintenance of Mosques is supported by government funds. The Chinese and Indian communities must construct and support their own places of worship. I was told that government sponsored family planing services are pressed on minority community family members but that Malay families are encouraged to have as many children as possible. I was told that at the time of separation, the Malaysian Ringit was worth more than twice as much as the Singapore dollar. Now the reverse is true. I was also told, however, that the preference system has worked in at least one respect. Malays now hold influential positions in most of Malaysia’s large business enterprises and are reaping the wealth that such positions provide. This makes it much less likely that Malay community leaders will collude in orchestrating attacks against the Chinese community than was true in 1969.

From studying Sri Lanka for more than 20 years I have learned that first impressions can be misleading. Gaining a deep understanding of a culture requires one to live ‘on the ground’ and years of intensive study. Even then, there always seem to be new ‘layers of the onion’ to be peeled.

All that can be said at this point is there may may exist potential problems that could threaten Malaysia’s political-economic well being and the long term sustainability of its communal preference systems.